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IMF forecasts primary surplus of 2.2% of GDP in 2018, which could lead to extra measures

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IMF released its Fiscal Monitor report, according to which Greece’s general govt primary surplus as % of GDP is estimated at 1.7% in 2017 (vs 1.8% previously), below the govt’s forecast of 2.21% and slightly lower than the programme’s target of 1.75%.

For 2018, IMF forecasts primary surplus of 2.2% (vs 2.0% previously), below the govt’s forecast of 3.57% and the programme’s target of 3.5%, suggesting an estimated gap of cEur2.4 bn which could lead to the introduction of extra measures that could exceed Eur2.4 bn in 2018.

 

For the period 2019-2022, IMF forecasts primary surplus of 3.5% p.a.  (vs 1.5% previously), in line with the programme. General govt revenues as % of GDP are seen falling from 48.6% in 2017 to 45.1% in 2022, whereas general govt expenditures as % of GDP are expected to drop from 50.3% in 2017 to 45.5% in 2022.

 

General govt debt as % of GDP is forecasted at 180.2% in 2017 (vs 180.7% previously), rising to 184.5% in 2018 (vs 181.5% previously) possibly attributable to the built-up of a cash buffer. The debt ratio may start declining from 2019 and onwards, namely from 177.9% in 2019 (vs 174.3% previously) to 161.2% in 2022 (vs 162.8% previously).

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